2015 Nostradamus Report

The 2015 Nostradamus Report was produced by the Göteborg Film Festival/ Nordic Film Market with the support of Lindholmen Science Park and released at the Nostradamus seminar on January 29th, 2015.

For this year’s report, we have interviewed the following experts, enormously generous with their time and thoughts:

Jakob Abrahamsson, director of distribution and acquisition, Nonstop Entertainment; Rikke Ennis, CEO, TrustNordisk; Annika Gustafson, Executive Director, Boost Hbg; Michelle Kass, film and literary agent, Michelle Kass Associates; Petri Kemppinen, CEO, Nordisk Film och TV Fond; Keri Lewis Brown, managing director, K7 Media; Jonathan Olsberg, Chairman, Olsberg SPI; Liz Rosenthal, CEO, Power to the Pixel.

At the accompanying seminar, the issues raised in it were discussed further by lecturers and panelists Liz Rosenthal, Jonathan Olsberg, Michelle Kass, Jonas Allen (producer, Misofilm), Stefan Borgquist (manager TV, Content and VAS, TeliaSonera Sverige), Göran Danasten (project manager, SVT) and Martina Ternström (Head of Acquisitions for Northern Europe, Koch Media).

Video from the seminar is available on our video page.

1. The Day-and-Date Tipping Point
The industry is finally moving to resolve the issue of dayand-date releases. But while 2014 cases like The Interview and Veronica Mars show some promise, the impact of day-and-date on the cinema window or the wider value chain is currently impossible to predict.


2. Being the Now
Market communication around audiovisual content is shifting from answering the question “why should I see this?” to “why should I see this now?” From the increasing live-ness of linear broadcasting and the high impact of social media on content selection, to new broadcast programme formats and events in cinemas, this change is driving change across our industries.


3. Room to Grow in the Screen Squeeze
Screen time in the cinemas is squeezed by a number of different factors, limiting theatrical opportunities in particular for new talent. Strategies for nurturing filmmakers and for creating other premiere platforms must urgently be created. But an honest conversation about the quality of the product is also needed.


4. The Value of a Movie Ticket
Positive trends in box office revenue build on increases in ticket prices rather than admissions. Consumers are finding the tickets too expensive. Developments in experiential cinema (whether around niche film or big, technical extravaganzas) are adding value to the core product, but the conservative mainstream cinema experience is in need of a service design overhaul. Alternative pricing models could also be considered.


5. Engaging the Audience
The industry is facing a dual audience engagement challenge. On the one hand, filmmakers have lost touch with the make-up and concerns of their audience. On the other, content needs passionate ambassadors in the ubiquitous media environment. Interacting with the audience early in production is a way of addressing both problems.


6. Engaging the Future
The disconnect between the industry and the audience is a particular threat where a cultural change is driven by young viewers. Some examples of such shifts are the impact of the social culture around digital games, the new tonalities and hierarchies in interaction between talent and audience, and the rapid development of enveloping screens.


7. Content Made to Travel
The trend of drama in languages other than English travelling internationally is likely to grow stronger. In the short term this could help broadcasters in a market like the Nordic that is currently strong, but overall competition will intensify. Investing more in the development of talent and projects is necessary.


8. Fifty-Seven Channels and Nothing On
Consumers are frustrated with the difficulty of finding content, especially across broadcast channels and on VOD rental services. Poor interfaces shrink the market for smaller films, drive migration to OTT services and boost piracy. As the industry moves towards personalised services, questions about privacy need addressing


Interviews and correspondence with the industry experts listed in the introduction took place in late 2014 and early 2015. For your convenience, below are clickable links to the textual references.

Susanne Ault: ‘Survey: YouTube Stars More Popular Than Mainstream Celebs Among US Teens’, Variety, 2014-08-05

Paula Bernstein: ‘Is the Day-and-Date Release of ‘The Interview’ a Success? That Depends.’ Indiewire, Dec 29, 2014

Box Office Mojo: The Interview (2014)

Canada Media Fund with Sodec and Power to the Pixel: Understanding Funders: Funding approaches, challenges & adaptation strategies to help funders cope in a changing media environment (Discussion paper, 2014)

Digitalsmiths: Q1 2014 Video Discovery Trends Report

Laurent Colombani, François Videlain et al: The Age of Curation: from Abundance to Discovery. A Bain & Company report on how people consume culture in the form of digital media for the Forum d’Avignon 2013.

Ernesto: ‘Top 10 Most Pirated Movies of the Week – 12/29/14′. Torrentfreak.com

Chris Godley: ’THR’s Social Media Poll: How Facebook and Twitter Impact the Entertainment Industry’. The Hollywood Reporter 2012-03-21

Michael Gubbins, Sampomedia: Audience in the Mind. A Cine-Regio Report (2014)

Kulturdepartementet. Enheten för medier, film och idrott: Framtidens filmstöd – Sammanställning från konferens 8 december. Promemoria 2014-08-18

Ryan Mac: ‘Amazon Pounces On Twitch After Google Balks Over Antitrust Concerns’. Forbes, 2014-08-25

Graeme McMillan: ‘“Star Wars: Force for Change” Winner Announced’, The Hollywood Reporter, 2014-11-08

Andreas Nordström: ‘Nu kommer krisen för gammel-tv’, Dagens Nyheter 2014-08-11

Power to the Pixel Cross-Media Forum 2014: The Think-Tank Report: London 2014

PwC: Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2014-2018

Svenska Filminstitutet: Publikens förändrade beteende. Om filmkonsumtion i olika målgrupper (2014)

Svenska Filminstitutet: Svenska Filminstitutets tankesmedja om svensk film och filmbransch. (2014)

Vandejong Creative Agency. ‘Cases: Cineville’

Erik Westerberg: ‘Här är facit över tv:s ras under 2014’, Dagens Media, 2014-12-17